OSCAR OSCAR WHO WILL WIN: Here come the actors or as I like to say Can we double the men's category?

Before I begin to dissect the Oscar nominations for lead acting I feel compelled to have a moment for those who got away. 2013 gave us an embarrassment of riches when it came to actor in a leading category. I know many believed Tom Hanks turn in Captain Phillips deserved to be there along side Joaquin Phoenix in Her. Anyone who saw All is Lost knows it may very well have been the performance of Robert Redford's career. For me however the two egregious misses for the lead performance by an actor were that of Oscar Isaac as the namesake for Inside Llewyn Davis and Michael B. Jordan in Fruitvale Station. Oscar Isaac masterfully crafted a character who was not at all likable and yet managed to create great empathy for the talent who is destined to remain a near miss in his career and in life. It's a beautiful nuanced performance that reminds me why less is more and why the Cohen Brothers are great. Michael B. Jordan had the yeoman task of depicting the life of Oscar Grant in the 24 hours that preceded his horrific and tragic murder on a subway platform in California just past the midnight celebration of New Years Eve. In a film that strikes you viscerally, it is no small feat that Jordan deftly navigates the complexity of a young black man who is neither villain nor martyr. He is simply a young man trying to pivot out of a series of bad choices so he can course correct his life for his daughter and the family he loves. There is a sequence in a supermarket that shows the full range of emotions that you would find in most young men, cocky, confidant, angry, short tempered and full of bravado. The sadness lies in the reality that as a young black man at a crossroads life is pulled out from under him based on nothing more than the bias and racism that sits just beneath the surface. Both are worth the time, in spite of the lack of Oscar love this year.

Now, onto the actual nominees:

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Christian Bale (American Hustle) Bruce Dern (Nebraska) Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street) Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

This race should be more interesting than it currently feels. First we can dispatch with the odd choice of Christian Bale who is not even in the conversation and Bruce Dern who while terrific is also the victim of the above overstuffed number of performances this year. For me, all roads lead to the Oscars jumping onto the McConassaince. Fact is McConaughey had an obscenely good year. His quiet and powerful performance this summer in Mud was effective and sincere. His cameo in The Wolf of Wall Street a surprising highlight in the high octane mayhem of excess that film was. But Dallas Buyers Club was different. It was the most daring performance of the year. Not because of the subject matter, but because McConaughey attacked all aspects of his character's contradictions and innate bias. The performance was defiant and it is why I believe he will ultimately win.  However, Leonardo DiCaprio's central focus in The Wolf of Wall Street was shockingly charismatic and invincible. The film has suffered blow back because most expected a redemptive retread of Wall Street and what they got was an unapologetic satire. I ate the entire 3+ hours like candy and a large reason is because of the steady mania that DiCaprio brings to the screen. It's his best performance since Revolutionary Road and he is an actor who is due. Chiwetel Ejiofor is thoroughly admired for his talent and this portrayal. As much as I adore him, I didn't love this performance. I thought it was uneven and suffered from a difficult script. However, if he does pull it out on Sunday it will be on the strength of the earnest conviction he brings to Solomon. There is a moment that hasn't made the clip reels that I actually think is what makes this performance heartbreaking. It is watching the conviction of hope and survival drain out of his character only to be replaced with resignation. It is a tight shot without the flare of a monologue and it is the strongest set of frames Ejiofor has in the entire film. 

Will Win/Should Win: Matthew McConaughy (although I will cry no rivers if Ejiofor or DiCaprio walks away with the statue). 

 

    

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Amy Adams (American Hustle) Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) Sandra Bullock (Gravity) Judi Dench (Philomena) Meryl Streep (August: Osage County

And welcome to the sure thing of the 86th Academy Awards. Cate Blanchett will catch no blow back for the sideshow that is her director. She will waltz up to the stage to collect the last of the many prizes she has earned for her turn as the modern day Blanche. As someone who had the good fortune to see Blanchett actually play that quintessential role in Streetcar Named Desire, her luminous insanity was not surprising here. She is the money bet for Sunday night.  Now Adams is a dark horse because she is due and has done consistently solid work over the last five years. She should have won for O'Russell's The Fighter, but I don't think it warrants the 'oops' award here. Bullock and Streep's nominations are a bad joke and I say that as a fan of Streep and someone without an ax to grind against Bullock. I sentimentally wish for Judi Dench to take this one home. It is my personal wish, founded in nothing more than the fact that she is pure genius. In Philomena she balances the tragedy of circumstance, the carriage of grief and the humor of someone who has lived with the former two with such ease you forget she's acting. It's what makes her great, but won't put her over the top here.

Will Win/Should Win: Cate Blanchett

OSCAR OSCAR WHO WILL WIN: Words, Words, Words... The Screenplay

Next on the docket is what I consider to be the circular vascular system of a movie, the screenplay. I have always found this category interesting because a win here doesn't necessarily guarantee a film will go on to win best picture. Often these categories offer the place where the academy can honor a film that doesn't rise to best picture but was admirable or compelling in some fashion. At times it almost serves as the consolation prize for best picture. 

Interesting trivia about screenplays:

• 30 of the 85 best picture winners didn't win a best screenplay award.

• Adaptations have won best picture by a 3 to 1 margin over it's 85 year history.

• Huge epic films don't tend to win screenwriting awards. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King is the most recent, rare exception.

• No musical that has won best picture has ever won best screenplay.

Best Adapted Screenplay	Before Midnight Captain Phillips  Philomena 12 Years a Slave The Wolf of Wall Street

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

This category is intriguing to me because the film that I believe will win was my least favorite script of the . bunch. 12 Years a Slave will take this honor almost by default and based on its subject matter, strong acting and interesting directing choices at pivotal moments in the film. I found the script all too often overwrought and in desperate need of an edit. That said, the other options range from strong in (Philomena) to quaint (Before Midnight). Philomena is a dark horse here. When people see it, they love it. The script is taut, honest and I found it gripping. The Wolf of Wall Street is another script that is elevated by performance and Captain Phillips is a script that serves its movie well but not extraordinary on its face.

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: Philomena

Best Original Screenplay	American Hustle  Blue Jasmine  Dallas Buyers Club Her  Nebraska

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

This side of the screenplay race is wide open as far as I am concerned and difficult to predict. Let's eliminate the obvious ones first. Dallas Buyers Club, Blue Jasmine and Nebraska are admirable films to round out this category although I would have argued for Mud, Inside Llewyn Davis and The Way Way Back in their place. That leaves the battle of the "never won" guys. Strong cases have been made for American Hustle, and I don't think it is a bad bet. Particularly for those who believe O'Russell missing out last year for Silver Linings Playbook was egregious. I do think Spike Jonze's pre-Oscar wins, particularly at the WGAs makes Her a real contender in a way it wasn't two months ago. It is also the most original story of the nominees. Neither writer has won before so it is the academy award equivalent of a jump ball. However, I believe Joaquin Phoenix missing out in the best actor category hurts Her's chances. I think those who hadn't seen Her prior to nominations being announced were less inclined to watch once he wasn't nominated. My edge goes to American Hustle.

Will Win: American Hustle

Should Win: Her

What nominated writing moved you? What was missing that deserved to be here? Could the academy ignore common sense and go in a completely different direction? What say you?

Oscar Oscar Who Will Win (should win): Best Supporting Actor & Actress

Tis the season and we are officially on countdown to Sunday's broadcast of the 2014 Oscars. This year an argument could have been made that we only needed five films nominated and 10 nominees for best actor (but more on that Wednesday!).  I will start with the categories that make up the first hour of our broadcast, those in a supporting role.

The Nominees:

Best Actor in a Supporting Role	Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips) Bradley Cooper (American Hustle) Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave) Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street) Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

This category had an interesting awards season. Out of the gate Barkhad Abdi was the person to beat, but quickly faded in favor of the type of performance Academy voters love - "the complete departure". Many an actor have won Oscars for physically transforming, playing against type and touching into a place of tragedy. Following that theory and Jared Leto's award season pick ups make this his award to lose. Add to it that he is a first time nominee and this is a category where the academy loves to honor first timers it is hard to think there will be an upset in this category. He's not the surest thing on Oscar night, that honor belongs to the leading actress category. I have finally seen all the performances in this category and Leto's is certainly affecting, but it wouldn't be my pick and nor is it the standout in Dallas Buyers Club. However, I am a realist and I wouldn't bet against Leto on Sunday. 

Will Win: Jared Leto

Should Win: Michael Fassbender

In a film I didn't like, Fassbender has the role that is riddled with traps for an actor. It can easily be overplayed and is a character highly susceptible to coming across as one-note. Fassbender manages to create a broken character with moments of vulnerability embedded in a lifetime of hatred. His strongest moment comes in a sequence with lead Chiwetel Ejiofer. It's a dance of deception, fear and knowing hostility. Fassbender leans into the terror and creates a frightening moment that causes the viewer to hold their breath, even with full knowledge of Solomon's fate. It's the performance that isn't talked about because it requires something ugly and gruesome. But of the nominees, it's my favorite. 

Best Actress in a Supporting Role	Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine) Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave) Julia Roberts (August: Osage County) June Squibb (Nebraska

This is by all accounts a two woman race between Nyong'o and Lawrence. I personally loathed Sally Hawkins performance in Blue Jasmine, but it doesn't even rise to the occasion of worthiness. Roberts nomination is odd, but the academy loves her so I am going to accept that is why she is here. Although if they were going to look for a supporting nomination for August: Osage County they could have had the good sense to nominate the worthy, luminous Margo Martindale who makes everything better by just showing up. That leaves June Squibb in Nebraska. For my money, she is the dark horse and the upset the Oscars loves to toss out in the first hour of broadcast (see: Marisa Tomei). I am not convinced Squibb will pull it out in the end, but I think it is within the realm of possibility. The combination of a great performance, screeners that make watching Nebraska convenient for the voters and a potential split vote between Lawrence and Nyong'o could give us the first upset of the night. I don't think it will happen but it could. That said, Lawrence is the new darling of the academy, but she won last year, for a better lead role, in a better film by David O'Russell. I don't think lightening hits that bottle twice. That leaves Lupita, who gave a gut wrenching performance in a role that people want to honor, especially given the stacked deck that the best actor category is this year. Add to that the great story line of Nyong'o being a breakout star this season on screen and on the red carpet I think the night will be hers. 

Will Win/Should Win - Lupita Nyong'o

In the absence of other nominees, I think Lupita's performance is far and away the standout. Just don't be surprised if at 8:20PM on Sunday you are Google-ing June Squibb's name.

Who are your picks? Who was missing? And a moment for a personal shoutout to my completely biased favorite, supporting performance this season  - one Jeanine Serralles in the underrated, wonderful Cohen Brother's Inside Llewyn Davis. 

TV REPORT CARD: 1st quarter grades in TV land.

TV junkies and casual viewers we are six weeks into the television season and the results are mixed. First cancelled casualties are in and many new shows are floundering or treading water. However, if I were to pick a theme for the season thus far it would be "all that's old is new again" because the strongest episodic television we are seeing comes from shows that have been on the air for more than two years. Let's get to grading:

HEAD OF THE CLASS 
The Good Wife: Grade A+
No show started or came back stronger. Season 5 opened with a framework to set the show on a path that was completely fresh and new. The first five episodes created a slow build placing all the primary characters into position for last Sunday's game changing episode. The Good Wife's greatest strengths have always been casting and dialogue. Last week put both on display in what can only be characterized as a master of class of television. It was 42 minutes of relentless, at times hilarious pacing that shifted every character we've come to know into a new position creating alliances of convenience, blurred lines of loyalty climaxing in a final scene that pits two characters on opposing sides in a way no one who watched season 1 would have ever imagined. All told, five seasons in The Good Wife is primed to be better than ever and earns it my top grade for the young season.

Castle: Grade A
What Castle has managed to do in its opening six episodes is seamlessly transition our lead couple from the pivotal acceptance of a marriage proposal to a confidant, stable relationship that is woven into the story without dominating it. In doing so Andrew Marlowe has managed to move the show into a new storytelling space while retaining all the aspects of the show that made us fall in love with it in the first place. Interesting murder cases juxtaposed with the unforeseen challenges resulting from the engagement. The dialogue has been both intimate and charming between our leads while the supporting cast has been pivoted into new realities which are unfolding for better or for worse. It is clear that this season is going to bring us a shift in our protagonist that we've only seen glimpses of until now. The shallow Rick Castle of the series pilot has evolved in many ways, but the conflict set up between he and Alexis has opened up an entire avenue of emotional storytelling I don't think any of the viewers saw coming. Yes Pi is problematic, but he's written to be that way. At a time when the stories and characters could sit back and rely on the chemistry of the leads Castle continues to evolve and find interesting ways to make us care. This quiet moment that closed episode 5 shows just how much.

Blacklist: Grade A-
The only freshman show to make this category, The Blacklist came out strong with James Spader blending clever and convincing acting into an intriguing hour of television. But as strong as Spader is Megan Boone's performance as Liz falls flat or overwrought depending on what she's doing. That imbalance between the leads has been distracting, but not enough to derail the show. Here's why. The overarching subplots are extremely interesting, in particular the mystery surrounding Liz's husband. While extremely entertaining, my chief concern remains. Spader's Red can't win every time and more importantly the 'good guys' need to win of their own volition otherwise they merely become puppets in the lead character's game. It was the failure of The Following last season and I hope Blacklist avoids the trap.

Once Upon a Time: Grade B+
All hail the decision to take the characters who are at the heart of the show and set them on a course for Neverland. It was perhaps the savviest decision I've seen a show make, although not entirely surprising given the fact that these are the creators of LOST. As a result season 3 has offered stories within a story in the quest to save Henry from a re-imagined sinister and deftly cast Peter Pan. Our more cynical characters have returned to form and depth has been given to Hook and Charming making both so much more interesting to watch. The show has always required a deep suspension of disbelief and the jury is out as to what will come of the storytelling when they eventually leave Neverland, especially given that as a viewer I haven't given Storybrooke a second thought this season and the weakest aspect of the show was getting Neal out of Fairyland. Even with that looming doubt there is no denying the show has shredded itself of what didn't work last year and has replaced it with strong potential around what comes next, making it the most improved show from season end to season start in 2013. This exchange between Peter Pan and Hook emphasizes all that is going well with this rejuvenated show.

SOLID START
Brooklyn Nine Nine: Grade B
This is the biggest and most pleasant surprise of the season. A rarity, Brooklyn Nine Nine has actually gotten stronger with each episode. Sandberg comes across as charming and self-effacing in his delivery and the push-pull between him and Andre Braugher is simply fun. The real gem of the show has been its ensemble which is developing into a supporting cast that could potentially rival that of classic shows like Fraiser. The show is very reminiscent of Night Court which makes it this year's most accessible comedy. 

The Millers: Grade B- 

I had extremely low expectations for this show which has served it well. It isn't great by any stretch of the imagination, but Margo Martindale is and the supporting cast is solid. Will The choice to make Will Arnett the straight man works in the shows favor. Still the writing is inconsistent and not particularly clever but all the elements are there and I am hopeful it will find its way into being a solid watch.

ON PROBATION

Sleepy Hollow: Grade C  The actors, in particular the two leads give me hope that all is not lost. However, the convoluted nature week to week of the story has this one sitting on my DVR longer than a new show should sit. I tape on Mondays and I often don't watch until Fridays, not a good sign for being a lasting presence on the DVR. 

Grey’s Anatomy: Grade C- After a very protracted and unnecessary two hour season opener this series is truly showing its age. Everything about this season feels stale. The conflict between Meredith and Christina feels forced because it is shoehorned between other plots that don't matter. Including all of the younger interns, Alex's daddy issues, the never ending anger/angst of Callie and Arizona and the continued destruction of Bailey's once great character. Shondra Rhimes is obviously being pulled to Scandal and Grey's has suffered the consequences. 

FAILING MARKS

Mom: Grade D+ 
I adore Allison Janney, I like Anna Faris and I wanted to love this show but I just don't. And that is because the shows underpinnings are simply sad. Two recovering addicts and a teen pregnancy isn't funny. The show shows moments of funny but so far it has been so erratic in tone I don't know that they can recover. It's a shame, because if there were more moments like this, the show would be terrific. 

Homeland: Grade D 
The bait and switch twist with Carrie notwithstanding, this season of Homeland has been painstakingly slow and the focus on Brody's daughter has been cringe worthy. It's obvious that the makers of Homeland learned none of the lessons of 24 and what not to do with teenaged daughters. I am all for methodical storytelling. But the show has become mired in the aftermath of Brody being exposed as a terrorist. Had they done a better job of establishing our concern and investment in Brody's family perhaps it would work as a plot line. But they didn't so it doesn't and as a result I am done for now. 

Scandal: Grade D-
I repeat, damn you Lisa Kudrow and your dramatic multiple episode arch! I remain in the minority when it comes to this show and will take it one step further in stating that I don't understand the fascination with Kerry Washington. Save for Kudrow's storyline which has piqued my interest everything I found frustrating about this show remains for season 3.

DIDN'T MAKE THE GRADE 
Agents of S.H.E.I.L.D Until and unless they make some drastic changes I am sadly gone. I recommend reading Screen Rant's piece here. They succinctly illustrate everything I believe to be true about this show and what needs to happen. If 2 of 4 occur I will tune back in.  

GLEE I returned for the tribute which was handled well given all that it needed to do. It offered one of the singular most heart wrenching scenes exquisitely played by the actors playing Kurt, Burt and Carol. But it is evident this is a show whose storytelling is past its prime.

Hostages Tony Collette and Dylan McDermott couldn't make this work and that was evident 25 minutes into the pilot. Worse than the Following, this show was both implausible and unlikable but its worst offense, it lacked suspense. 

Once Upon a Time in Wonderland When I was predicting the fall season I wrote "If I had a most likely to drop off my DVR first, this would be it." And I was correct, I watched half of the first episode and bailed. It did little in that time to make me believe it was anything more than a poor retread of the series it is born from.

Trophy Wife It is almost criminal to waste Bradley Whitford in a comedy. It is even worse to do it as a cheap, uninspired knock off of Modern Family. I wanted to like it, but it is just not possible.

Revenge This show fell off a cliff last year and with a packed Sunday of television, I saw no reason to return.

MOVIE REVIEW: GRAVITY: A visual triumph that lacks a movie of substance to go with it.

 *** SPOILER ALERT: If you haven't seen the film, the final two paragraphs of this review will discuss the ending of the film in detail.You've been warned. ***

I must confess up front that I didn't quite grasp the transformative hype that Gravity was receiving in the run up to its release last weekend. The trailers lacked suspense and frankly, I just didn't get it. However, I am a fan of Alfonso Curan dating back to Y tu Mama Tambien and Prisoner of Askaban ranks as my favorite of the Harry Potter films. He is a visionary behind the camera and crafts ominous worlds that draw you into darkness in a way that I think offers a unique voice for film making. Through that prism I defied my own instincts and plunked down the full IMAX experience price to see a 90 minute film that in the advertising felt like it was little more than Open Water in space.

The Set Up: The film centers on astronauts Ryan Stone (Sandra Bullock) and Matt Kowalski (George Clooney) who are set adrift in space after a major accident detaches them from their space shuttle. It goes on to chronicle how the two work together as they search for a way to survive. 

The Result: This film is meant to be seen in 3D and IMAX. If you don't see it in the theater in some form, the beauty and point is essentially lost. This is not a movie that will translate to DVD and small screen. All of the the optics and esthetics that make it special will simply not hold up. It was worth my time and money in the way seeing a special art exhibit is. In my opinion, if you're looking for an engaging film that offers deeper meaning, this isn't it.

The Good
This is unquestionably a visual masterpiece. What Curan and his director of photography, Emmanuel Lubezki achieve is the equivalent of a large scale art installation that happens to use the cinema as it's vehicle and display. Hands down this is the best use of 3D technology certainly since the flight sequence in Avatar and I would argue ever. Curan and his crew have a clear objective to create a sensory experience that is almost completely isolating while still awe inspiring. I was grateful that the 3D was predominantly used to simulate depth perception that I imagine would mimic the limitlessness of outer space. As a result you are drawn into the world inhabited by the astronauts in a way that physically takes hold. Suspense is created through the absence of sound in key moments and a smart technique that literally offers the audience Stone's point of view. Three sequences that are a direct consequence to the tragedy at the core of the movie are mesmerizing. All drive the plot forward and serve as transitions for the movie to pivot towards its eventual conclusion.

The use and absence of sound throughout the film is brilliantly nuanced and lends an authenticity to the sensory experience that is haunting. I appreciated this in spite of a score that at times simply felt heavy handed and loud. In fact the sound techniques directly connected to the film are carried from the opening shot to the very final moment of the credits. It's a complete thread that will be missed by most, but for a geek like me was a flourish that marked the difference between tying a knot versus an artful bow on a gift. 

The Bad:
Pretty much everything else. The script is mediocre at best and often feels trite when not being deliberately manipulative. Speaking of manipulative, there is a sequence with Bullock that marks the transition into the final third of the film that nearly made me laugh out loud it was so heavy handed. It smacks you over the head with obvious symbolism that is meant to add depth to Bullock's character and propel the viewer to the final portion of the film. To me it felt like a cut scene from Kubrick's 2001: A Space Odyssey. The attempts to round out the characters while they are in peril fall flat, perhaps because we have no context for them prior to arriving at this crisis. As an audience we are dropped into their story moments before disaster strikes and as a result we are given little to care about beyond the immediacy of the life and death situation. This makes for adequate suspense in the first third of the movie, but quickly wanes as we meander to its conclusion. The plot is extremely thin and quickly becomes horribly repetitive. The tactics and strategies employed to survive aren't new and they lack the urgency that movies like Apollo 13 so wonderfully captured. I am usually drawn to stories that revel in a solitary journey of physical and spiritual self. This film, for all it's visual splendor doesn't come close to achieving the emotional isolation that you would expect from a film like this and sadly the story never rises to meet the visual astonishment. The result kept me at arms length over the course of movie. While I remained curious about the outcome, I never became invested in it. There has been a lot of chatter about Bullock's turn as Ryan Stone being Oscar worthy. I just don't see it. She's fine with what little she's given and the same could be said for George Clooney. Both are hampered not by the logistics and technology, but by lack of fundamental storytelling. However lack of script doesn't change the fact that there is nothing extraordinary to be found in Bullock's performance. It isn't remotely in the same league as the work we saw from Adrian Brody in The Pianist or even James Franco in 127 Hours which is a shame, because Gravity offers the rare instance for a female voice was to be the one in extreme isolation and peril. It is a shame none of it was explored. Which is why after a final 60 minutes that carried a great deal of repetition the ending was simply infuriating and the final 5 minutes a waste of time.

 ***** SPOILER ALERT ********* SPOILER ALERT *****

 

***** SPOILER ALERT ********* SPOILER ALERT *****

The Ending:
Independent of the poor script the movie does actually take Bullock's character on a journey that is less about survival and more about acceptance and reconciliation.Viewers are left to draw the parallel between Stone losing her daughter and her efforts to survive this catastrophic event. The set up was clear but never quite gelled for me. From the moment she enters the second shuttle and recoils into fetal position it is as though for the back end of the film she is reborn with a determination to fight that feels out of character. Knowing she survived her daughter's death but ceased to really go on living makes her final push in the movie important. That is why I found myself hoping she would not survive the final act of the film. For me the strongest sequence is when she is pushing towards reentry to earth, surrounded by fire she finds peace. Having fought for survival her fate is no longer in her hands, she finds reconciliation in the knowledge that she will begin living again if she survives and she will have made peace with her life should she die in that moment. It is the most powerful moment of the film and needed nothing more to resonate. The film could have ended right there. I personally would have been fine with an ambiguous ending right at the point of re-entering the earth's atmosphere with the flames around her and then having all the sound coms, including Houston come back on as we fade to black. Her journey ended when she found peace, not when she survived the landing. That is why everything after re-entry pissed me off. The entire water escape was extraneous. Seriously a frog was the only living creature in that water? She went from perilous depths to waters so shallow she was quickly able to make her way to shore? Nope, it felt tacked on by the distributors of the movie. It was cheap and broke what little emotional resonance the film had managed to muster. 

In the end, Gravity will be remembered for its cinematic achievements that are deserved and fantastic. The film will not go on to join the canon of movies that serve as a commentary for how we value life in the broad scope of the world and our small place in it.

EMMY PICKS: A laymans guide for those of you who have betting pools to win

This post has one explicit purpose. To set up the viewing pleasure that comes from betting pools. So lets get into it - the great divide of who will and who should win.

NOTE:  A word about Breaking Bad and Bryan Cranston in particular. I appreciate the momentum the show has picked up recently and concede this final season has been mind-blowing. However, the nominations on Sunday are for Season 4 which was less than its best. My picks reflect my thoughts about season 4, not it's currently running final season.

DRAMA

Outstanding Drama Series

Should Win: Game of Thrones

Will Win: House of Cards

This one is a tough call. Breaking Bad or Homeland could easily win based on momentum. I think of the nominated shows, Game of Thrones had the best season, but House of Cards feels like a show people want to reward.

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series

Should Win: Damian Lewis as Nicholas Brody, Homeland

Will Win: Kevin Spacey as Francis Underwood, House of Cards

Spacey is an actor people love to vote for, in a series that broke ground in TV viewing with Netflix. In spite of a weak 2^nd season the acting on Homeland remains among the best that television has to offer. So I would like back to back wins for Lewis.

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama Series

Should Win: Robin Wright as Claire Underwood, House of Cards

Will Win: Claire Danes as Carrie Mathison, Homeland

Claire Danes is actually my least favorite thing in Homeland, but she’s nearly a lock to win. For me Robin Wright WAS the reason to watch House of Cards.

***** A moment of silence for the robbed Tatiana Maslany, who actually gave the best performance, hands down. **********

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama Series

Should Win: Anna Gunn as Skyler White Breaking Bad

Will Win: Maggie Smith as Violet, Dowager Countess Downton Abbey

Anna Gunn deserves it, but I don’t bet against Maggie Smith and she was at her very best last season. She broke my heart simply by leaning into a wall.

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama Series

Should Win: Mandy Patinkin as Saul, Homeland

Will Win: Aaron Paul as Jesse Pinkman Breaking Bad

I hope I am wrong and that Patinkin deservedly wins here on Sunday night. He is the backbone of Homeland and his performance a master class.

COMEDY

Outstanding Comedy Series

Should Win: Louie

Will Win: Modern Family

Louie is better than Modern Family, but Modern Family is poised to make history in consecutive wins and join a prestigious group of comedy with multiple wins in this category. It will do both.

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Comedy Series

Should/Will Win: Louis C.K. as Louie, Louie

This is the way the Emmys will reward this terrific show. It won’t win for best comedy and this is the next best thing. Jim Parsons has an outside shot at spoiling.

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy Series

Should Win: Amy Poehler as Leslie Knope Parks and Recreation

Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Selina Meyer Veep

Poehler is due, but the Emmy’s love Louis-Dreyfus and she is great in Veep so it’s hard to deny her.

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series

Should Win: Merritt Wever as Zoey Barkow Nurse Jackie

Will Win: Julie Bowen as Claire Dunphy Modern Family

Emmy’s history is repetitive especially in the comedy series categories so logic dictates Bowen gets a second statue.

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy Series

Should Win: Ed O'Neill as Jay Pritchett, Modern Family

Will Win: Ty Burell as Phil Dunphy Modern Family

O'Neill has long deserved Emmy love, he's just unlikely to get it here. Look for Tony Hale to spoil for Veep if the Modern Family vote splinters off voters.

REALITY

Outstanding Reality-Competition Program

Should Win: So You Think You Can Dance

Will Win: The Amazing Race

Since they started the category the Amazing Race has won all but one time (losing to Top Chef). Good money says stay with the travelogue show.

Outstanding Host For A Reality Or Reality-Competition Program

Should Win: Cat Deeley, So You Think You Can Dance

Will Win: Tom Bergeron, Dancing with the Stars

Cat Deeley is completed overshadowed by bigger names in shows that get more press. Bergeron however makes a show long past its expiration date palatable.

MINISERIES/MOVIE

Outstanding Miniseries Or Movie

Should Win: Top of the Lake

Will Win: Behind the Candelabra

This too is a lock. Top of the Lake was terrific but Behind the Candelabra was an event.

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Miniseries Or A Movie

Will/Should Win: Michael Douglas as Liberace Behind the Candelabra

This is the lock of the night. Period.

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Miniseries Or A Movie

Will/Should Win: Elisabeth Moss as Robin, Top of the Lake

The Emmy’s finally has a mechanism for honoring Elisabeth Moss outside of Mad Men and logic says they’ll take it. It helps that she deserves it for this role specifically.

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Miniseries Or A Movie

Should Win: Alfre Woodard as Ouiser Steel Magnolias

Will Win: Sarah Paulson as Lana Winters American Horror Story

Woodard was the best thing in a good remake of Magnolias, but Paulson is loved and was robbed last year for Game Change.

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Miniseries Or A Movie

Should/Will Win: Peter Mullan as Matt Top of the Lake

Mullan was terrific and is likely given the makeup of the category, however James Cromwell could spoil.

One final note: I had an extensive catharsis around the Emmy's when the nominations came out. You can read it here. I have one final gripe to make before the fun begins. Earlier this week it the Emmy's announced they were going to single out James Gandolfini, Jonathan Winters, Jean Stapleton, Gary David Goldberg and Corey Monteith outside the traditional In Memoriam scroll that happens annually. My personal opinion, the memoriam is a time to honor all in the industry who passed. But, if the academy is going to single out a handful of people it should be for a significant and/or impacting body of work. Monteith doesn't meet that threshold. Furthermore, the cynic in me thinks it's a ploy to pull in younger demographics which is gross. 

Now bring on Neil Patrick Harris...