Next on the docket is what I consider to be the circular vascular system of a movie, the screenplay. I have always found this category interesting because a win here doesn't necessarily guarantee a film will go on to win best picture. Often these categories offer the place where the academy can honor a film that doesn't rise to best picture but was admirable or compelling in some fashion. At times it almost serves as the consolation prize for best picture.
Interesting trivia about screenplays:
- 30 of the 85 best picture winners didn't win a best screenplay award.
- Adaptations have won best picture by a 3 to 1 margin over it's 85 year history.
- Huge epic films don't tend to win screenwriting awards. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King is the most recent, rare exception.
- No musical that has won best picture has ever won best screenplay.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
This category is intriguing to me because the film that I believe will win was my least favorite script of the . bunch. 12 Years a Slave will take this honor almost by default and based on its subject matter, strong acting and interesting directing choices at pivotal moments in the film. I found the script all too often overwrought and in desperate need of an edit. That said, the other options range from strong in (Philomena) to quaint (Before Midnight). Philomena is a dark horse here. When people see it, they love it. The script is taut, honest and I found it gripping. The Wolf of Wall Street is another script that is elevated by performance and Captain Phillips is a script that serves its movie well but not extraordinary on its face.
Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: Philomena
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This side of the screenplay race is wide open as far as I am concerned and difficult to predict. Let's eliminate the obvious ones first. Dallas Buyers Club, Blue Jasmine and Nebraska are admirable films to round out this category although I would have argued for Mud, Inside Llewyn Davis and The Way Way Back in their place. That leaves the battle of the "never won" guys. Strong cases have been made for American Hustle, and I don't think it is a bad bet. Particularly for those who believe O'Russell missing out last year for Silver Linings Playbook was egregious. I do think Spike Jonze's pre-Oscar wins, particularly at the WGAs makes Her a real contender in a way it wasn't two months ago. It is also the most original story of the nominees. Neither writer has won before so it is the academy award equivalent of a jump ball. However, I believe Joaquin Phoenix missing out in the best actor category hurts Her's chances. I think those who hadn't seen Her prior to nominations being announced were less inclined to watch once he wasn't nominated. My edge goes to American Hustle.
Will Win: American Hustle
Should Win: Her
What nominated writing moved you? What was missing that deserved to be here? Could the academy ignore common sense and go in a completely different direction? What say you?
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