EMMY PICKS: A laymans guide for those of you who have betting pools to win

This post has one explicit purpose. To set up the viewing pleasure that comes from betting pools. So lets get into it - the great divide of who will and who should win.

NOTE:  A word about Breaking Bad and Bryan Cranston in particular. I appreciate the momentum the show has picked up recently and concede this final season has been mind-blowing. However, the nominations on Sunday are for Season 4 which was less than its best. My picks reflect my thoughts about season 4, not it's currently running final season.

DRAMA

Outstanding Drama Series

Should Win: Game of Thrones

Will Win: House of Cards

This one is a tough call. Breaking Bad or Homeland could easily win based on momentum. I think of the nominated shows, Game of Thrones had the best season, but House of Cards feels like a show people want to reward.

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series

Should Win: Damian Lewis as Nicholas Brody, Homeland

Will Win: Kevin Spacey as Francis Underwood, House of Cards

Spacey is an actor people love to vote for, in a series that broke ground in TV viewing with Netflix. In spite of a weak 2^nd season the acting on Homeland remains among the best that television has to offer. So I would like back to back wins for Lewis.

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama Series

Should Win: Robin Wright as Claire Underwood, House of Cards

Will Win: Claire Danes as Carrie Mathison, Homeland

Claire Danes is actually my least favorite thing in Homeland, but she’s nearly a lock to win. For me Robin Wright WAS the reason to watch House of Cards.

***** A moment of silence for the robbed Tatiana Maslany, who actually gave the best performance, hands down. **********

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama Series

Should Win: Anna Gunn as Skyler White Breaking Bad

Will Win: Maggie Smith as Violet, Dowager Countess Downton Abbey

Anna Gunn deserves it, but I don’t bet against Maggie Smith and she was at her very best last season. She broke my heart simply by leaning into a wall.

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama Series

Should Win: Mandy Patinkin as Saul, Homeland

Will Win: Aaron Paul as Jesse Pinkman Breaking Bad

I hope I am wrong and that Patinkin deservedly wins here on Sunday night. He is the backbone of Homeland and his performance a master class.

COMEDY

Outstanding Comedy Series

Should Win: Louie

Will Win: Modern Family

Louie is better than Modern Family, but Modern Family is poised to make history in consecutive wins and join a prestigious group of comedy with multiple wins in this category. It will do both.

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Comedy Series

Should/Will Win: Louis C.K. as Louie, Louie

This is the way the Emmys will reward this terrific show. It won’t win for best comedy and this is the next best thing. Jim Parsons has an outside shot at spoiling.

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy Series

Should Win: Amy Poehler as Leslie Knope Parks and Recreation

Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Selina Meyer Veep

Poehler is due, but the Emmy’s love Louis-Dreyfus and she is great in Veep so it’s hard to deny her.

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series

Should Win: Merritt Wever as Zoey Barkow Nurse Jackie

Will Win: Julie Bowen as Claire Dunphy Modern Family

Emmy’s history is repetitive especially in the comedy series categories so logic dictates Bowen gets a second statue.

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy Series

Should Win: Ed O'Neill as Jay Pritchett, Modern Family

Will Win: Ty Burell as Phil Dunphy Modern Family

O'Neill has long deserved Emmy love, he's just unlikely to get it here. Look for Tony Hale to spoil for Veep if the Modern Family vote splinters off voters.

REALITY

Outstanding Reality-Competition Program

Should Win: So You Think You Can Dance

Will Win: The Amazing Race

Since they started the category the Amazing Race has won all but one time (losing to Top Chef). Good money says stay with the travelogue show.

Outstanding Host For A Reality Or Reality-Competition Program

Should Win: Cat Deeley, So You Think You Can Dance

Will Win: Tom Bergeron, Dancing with the Stars

Cat Deeley is completed overshadowed by bigger names in shows that get more press. Bergeron however makes a show long past its expiration date palatable.

MINISERIES/MOVIE

Outstanding Miniseries Or Movie

Should Win: Top of the Lake

Will Win: Behind the Candelabra

This too is a lock. Top of the Lake was terrific but Behind the Candelabra was an event.

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Miniseries Or A Movie

Will/Should Win: Michael Douglas as Liberace Behind the Candelabra

This is the lock of the night. Period.

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Miniseries Or A Movie

Will/Should Win: Elisabeth Moss as Robin, Top of the Lake

The Emmy’s finally has a mechanism for honoring Elisabeth Moss outside of Mad Men and logic says they’ll take it. It helps that she deserves it for this role specifically.

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Miniseries Or A Movie

Should Win: Alfre Woodard as Ouiser Steel Magnolias

Will Win: Sarah Paulson as Lana Winters American Horror Story

Woodard was the best thing in a good remake of Magnolias, but Paulson is loved and was robbed last year for Game Change.

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Miniseries Or A Movie

Should/Will Win: Peter Mullan as Matt Top of the Lake

Mullan was terrific and is likely given the makeup of the category, however James Cromwell could spoil.

One final note: I had an extensive catharsis around the Emmy's when the nominations came out. You can read it here. I have one final gripe to make before the fun begins. Earlier this week it the Emmy's announced they were going to single out James Gandolfini, Jonathan Winters, Jean Stapleton, Gary David Goldberg and Corey Monteith outside the traditional In Memoriam scroll that happens annually. My personal opinion, the memoriam is a time to honor all in the industry who passed. But, if the academy is going to single out a handful of people it should be for a significant and/or impacting body of work. Monteith doesn't meet that threshold. Furthermore, the cynic in me thinks it's a ploy to pull in younger demographics which is gross. 

Now bring on Neil Patrick Harris... 

EMMY NOMINATIONS RUNDOWN: The Good, the Obscenely Bad and the belief that the Emmy folks don't actually watch TV

Does the Emmy nominating body actually watch TV? Looking at the 2013 nominations you would be hard pressed to think they do. That or you'd think it was actually 2011. I realize that the Emmy's (as with most awards shows) is a game of politics, silliness and a dash of recognition. But in a year that had breakout performances and some really innovative television the nominations this morning just felt lazy. My rant today will focus almost exclusively on what happened in the drama categories. For a more thoughtful pondering of the nominations I suggest you check out this great piece over at Vulture and for those interested in what went wrong with the comedies, head on over to and read my friend's thoughts at  Nerdy Girl Notes later today where you will get an extensive commentary on how New Girl and Parks and Rec were unceremoniously robbed. Look, I don't even watch New Girl and I am baffled by the complete shutout of their actors. Earlier this week I also shared my personal hopes and wishes for this Emmy season, which you can revisit here. Now it's time to look at what actually happened.

** We interrupt this blog post to say SERIOUSLY? No nomination for Tatiana Maslany?**

Moving on, I am going to start negative and end on a positive, because in spite of my abject anger in some areas, there was good news in the sea of Emmy Nominations.

THE BAD

Most Egregious Snub
Hands down Tatiana Maslany being passed over for even a nomination is just ridiculous. They made room for 7 BEST ACTRESS NOMINATIONS and yet somehow, Maslany wasn't recognized for creating 7 unique characters in one series. Not only should she have been nominated, she should have won. Entertainment Weekly had a great theory stating had Orphan Black been on Netflix or HBO she would have likely been nominated. Regardless it's appalling.

Enough Already
The Emmys have a bad habit of nominating shows past their expiration date. Mad Men had an AWFUL season and that is coming from its most loyal fans. You can recognize actors good work in bad seasons, but to nominate shows (especially when there was a plethora of other shows to chose from) under the theory of 'but we always have' is just insulting. This is the type of move that makes me believe the nominating committee doesn't actually watch television or read the news in their own industry. Mad Men had no business being there over the likes of The Good Wife, The Americans or The Walking Dead.

Period Costumes does not equal Best anything (except maybe best costumes)
Let me start by saying, I love Downton Abbey. Eat it up like candy, but British accents and castles does not a great series make. They had a very uneven season and best drama is a suspect nomination. I would also say Hugh Bonneville and Michelle Dockery were overreach nominations. They both had stellar season 2 performances, but to not have Timothy Olyphant or Matthew Rhys in the lead actor category was a miss in my opinion.

** Speaking of Olyphant and Rhys, I'd like to take a moment to say to the Television Academy that nominating the brilliant Margo Martindale does not offer you a hall pass to snub the lead actors on the shows she's featured on. First Olyphant two years ago with Justified, now The Americans. Just because it's F/X doesn't mean the work isn't stellar. Just sayin'.**

How do you solve a problem like The Game of Thrones
Look, I get it. The show is dark, bloody and gratuitous. It also possesses a cast of thousands making it very difficult to keep all the storylines straight, let alone what actors belong to which House. That said, Nikolaj Coster-Waldau's performance transformed a key character in this season's narrative. Jamie Lanister is a long way from the man who threw the young Stark boy out a window in season 1. Coster-Waldau did it with an exquisite honest performance that possessed nuance and strength. To overlook his acting is upsetting. The only thing worse than that is completely missing the boat that was Michelle Fairley. Mainly because there won't be another opportunity to nominate her for the fantastically complex and morally flawed work she did as Lady Stark.

PERHAPS THERE IS HOPE FOR THE ACADEMY YET
I am not all piss and vinegar. There were some nominations and shifts that made me very happy. Here's my list of things that the academy did right this morning.

1) All the love for Louie C.K. was both exciting and refreshing to see. While it may not be everyone's cup of tea, Louie is a smart, well conceived and written show. To see him break through big gives me some margin of hope for the future of TV comedy.

2) Julia Louis-Dreyfus surpassed Lucille Ball with her Veep nomination for most ever. Couldn't have happened to a better comedic actress.

3) While I remain singularly irrationally irrate about Tatiana Maslany's absence from the lead actress category. Vera Farmiga and Robin Wright's nominations are solid consolation.

4) The entire slate of nominess for guest actor and actress in a drama: soup to nuts. Are there other people I would have like to see on those lists? Yes. But what makes these two slates great is I don't know who I would bounce out of the category to make room for someone else.

Outstanding Guest Actor In A Drama Series
The Good Wife • Nathan Lane as Clarke Hayden

The Good Wife • Michael J. Fox as Louis Canning

Homeland • Rupert Friend as Peter Quinn

Mad Men • Robert Morse as Bertram Cooper

Mad Men • Harry Hamlin as Jim Cutler

Scandal • Dan Bucatinsky as James Novack

Outstanding Guest Actress In A Drama Series
The Americans • Margo Martindale as Claudia

Game Of Thrones • Diana Rigg as Olenna Tyrell

The Good Wife • Carrie Preston as Elsbeth Tascioni

Mad Men • Linda Cardellini as Sylvia Rosen

The Newsroom • Jane Fonda as Leona Lansing

Shameless • Joan Cusack as Sheila Jackson

5) Jeff Daniels nomination makes me happy and I don't even like Newsroom. He's one of those actors that people forget how good he really is because he's been around forever.

6) I am always thrilled when people have the good sense to recognize Margo Martindale's work. She is a treasure and makes anything she is in better by simply showing up.

7) Morena Baccarin and Mandy Patinkin's nominations for truly strong work in Homeland. I had many problems with Homeland's second season, it's acting was not among them.

8) I get a special giddy over the idea of Jason Bateman, Don Cheadle and Matt LeBlanc all sharing space in the same category. That is all.

9) Top of Lake and Elizabeth Moss's great work in it are worth everyone's time. Perhaps the Emmy nods will encourage more people to check it out. If you're a Mad Men fan it will prove just how good an actor Moss truly is.

We all have our pet favorites for TV shows, but I think this covers 90% of my emotional catharsis. I don't watch nearly enough on the comedy side to be too opinionated, but I think I can safely say Modern Family is the Mad Men of comedy. On that note, where does your Emmy anger lie?

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION: My memo to the Emmys on my wish list of nominees

Emmy nominations come out later this week and while I will have much to say once we have actual nominees, I thought I would offer my best hopes regarding the 2012-2013 television season when it comes to dramas.

LEAD ACTRESS:  Two words: Tatiana Maslany. That it is all. Yes Claire Danes is terrific on Homeland. Yes Orphan Black was a series that came out of no where. That does not diminish the fact that Maslany's work as a series of clones was the singularly best thing to happen to TV this past season. She deserves not only the nomination, she deserves the statue come September. Along side her I would immediately place Robin Wright in House of Cards. It may not have been a great series, but she was a bright light in it. Her character as the driven and ruthless wife of Kevin Spacey was a relentless and stole every scene she was in. Kevin Spacey and Corey Stoll have gotten a lot of attention, I don't understand how Wright has been left out of the praise.

BEST DRAMA: Two more words: Orphan Black. At a bare minimum the show deserves one of the best drama slots this year. The series is innovative, smartly written and balanced an implausible plot with equal parts sci-fi, thriller and humor. There is nothing else like it on television and it had a near flawless first season. Of the nominees from last year - Homeland, Mad Men and Downton Abbey all had weak seasons. I realize Homeland, Game of Thrones and Breaking Bad are a lock for a nominations, the other two could drop off and take Boardwalk Empire with it. That leaves three slots up for grabs. The new shows that are contenders include The Americans, Newsroom, House of Cards and Scandal. If any of them makes the cut and Orphan Black doesn't there is no justice in the world.

BEST ACTOR: Bryan Cranston has done amazing work in Breaking Bad, that's been reinforced loud and clear with 4 Emmys. Perhaps it is time to take a pause and forgive the fact that Justified airs on a third tier network in F/X. Timothy Olyphant is LONG overdue for his subtle, mesmerizing work at the center of that series. Yes honoring Margo Martindale a couple of years ago was terrific, but there is no reason to put Olyphant on the Kyle Chandler Emmy track and waiting for the series to end to recognize the body of work. Both Kevin Bacon and Jeff Daniels deserve a nod in spite of the hot mess that their shows were.  Daniels was compelling even when he was slogging through Sorkin's overworked dialogue and Bacon made me care about his character in sea of bodies and bloodletting. If I am picking from the crop of oft nominees I am going to vote no to Jon Hamm, Michael C. Hall, Steve Buscemi and yes to Bryan Cranston and Damian Lewis (although I suspect Hamm is a lock). Kevin Spacey will round out the nominees not because he was great, but because he's Kevin Spacey.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Game of Thrones may not offer job security, but it should offer up a best supporting actor nomination for Nikolaj Coster-Waldau. Jamie had the biggest trajectory shift on Game of Thrones. When you strip away the Red Wedding and look at the performances no one was stronger, not even Peter Dinklage (although he's a lock to be nominated) I would like to see Coster-Waldau joined by Mandy Patinkin, Homeland had a very rough second season however watching Patinkin's scenes you would never know it. He is stellar even when he was given little to work with and his performance in the closing scene of the season set me completely on edge.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: The best supporting actress category is equally jammed packed with strong contenders. Yes, Maggie Smith will get nominated. It is my hope that Mad Men and Good Wife nominees will drop off and make way for some deserving nominees and fresh faces in the category. My lead contender would be Michelle Fairley. As the matriarch of the now decimated House Stark Fairley's work in the Red Wedding was a master class. In my opinion, Fairley has been a standout for the entire series thus far, but now is the time to recognize it. Rounding out this group I think will be deserved nominations for Morena Baccarin and Monica Potter.

Emmy nominations come out on Thursday and I am sure there will be surprises and disappointments among them. For me, if even a fraction of this wish list *cough* Tatiana Maslany *cough* makes it onto ballots I will be a happy fan girl.