OSCAR OSCAR WHO WILL WIN: The Hodgepodge - Best Director and other random nomination thoughts.

There are plenty of awards and names that will be seen on Sunday night's broadcast including the second to last award of the evening. Best Director. I am a straight shooter when it comes to this category and live by the creed 'as goes the Director's Guild Awards go I'.  Which means this is Cuaron's to lose.

Best Directing	American Hustle (David O. Russell) Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón) Nebraska (Alexander Payne) 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen) The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)

Fact is only 7 times in 65 opportunities has the person who won the DGA not gone on to win the Oscar. Most notably last year when Ben Affleck won for Argo, but wasn't even nominated for an Oscar. Gravity is a movie I didn't like, but it was a visual spectacle and it was like experiencing art in a way that was visually gratifying. It just wasn't a very good film. So I am torn about supporting his win. The only person who has a chance at unseating him is Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave. And frankly the only way that happens is if it gets swept up in the unlikely event that the movie runs the table. Something we will know early if Fassbender or their adapted screenplay win.

Will Win/Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

And then there's the best of the rest: animated film, documentary, score and song:

Best Animated Feature	The Croods (Chris Sanders, Kirk DeMicco, Kristine Belson) Despicable Me 2 (Chris Renaud, Pierre Coffin, Chris Meledandri) Ernest & Celestine (Benjamin Renner, Didier Brunner) Frozen (Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho) The Wind Rises (Hayao Miyazaki, Toshio Suzuki)

Here's some interesting trivia about best animated feature, since its inception in 2002 Disney Animation has never won. (Brave is a Pixar film). Yet it is widely believed that the strength of Beauty and the Beast and Lion King spurred the momentum to include the category. The former being the first animated feature ever to be nominated for best picture. Frozen is lightening in a bottle the likes of which Disney hasn't seen since The Lion King and has a real chance to win on Sunday night. It's not the best film in the lot, that honor goes to Hayao Miyazaki's The Wind Rises and I think he should win. But the fervor around Frozen makes it the best bet.

Will Win: Frozen
Should Win: The Wind Rises

Best Documentary Feature	The Act of Killing (Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge Sørensen) Cutie and the Boxer (Zachary Heinzerling, Lydia Dean Pilcher) Dirty Wars (Richard Rowley, Jeremy Scahill) The Square (Jehane Noujaim, Karim Amer) 20 Feet from Stardom (Nominees to be determined

I bring this category to the forefront because it holds my favorite nomination for Sunday night and the most egregious omission Blackfish. The CNN documentary traces the unsavory and criminally cruel practices that built the brand we know as Sea World. Built around the deaths caused by the killer whale Tillikum the film painfully traces the indifference in practice and abject lies surrounding the awful breading practices at Sea World. I don't know how it was passed over and I am sorry it was, it is a film that enrages, but should not be missed.  20 Feet of Stardom is my favorite nomination and I hope it goes on to win.

Will Win: The Act of Killing
Should Win: 20 Feet from Stardom

Best Original Score	The Book Thief (John Williams) Gravity (Steven Price) Her (William Butler, Owen Pallett) Philomena (Alexandre Desplat) Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)

Here is where the yin/yang of film making really does swing into full effect. Yes John WIlliams is the perennial nominee, but this award will go to Steven Price for Gravity.

Will Win/Should Win: Gravity (Steven Price)

Best Original Song	Happy (Despicable Me 2) Let It Go (Frozen) The Moon Song (Her) Ordinary Love (Mandela: Long Walk to Freededom

So here's where the obvious bet is on the song that every parent has been listening to at nausea for the last six months. That said, I was right about Eminem, I find it hard to bet against U2.

Will/Should Win: Let it Go (Frozen)
Could Win: Ordinary Love (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)

OSCAR OSCAR WHO WILL WIN: Here come the actors or as I like to say Can we double the men's category?

Before I begin to dissect the Oscar nominations for lead acting I feel compelled to have a moment for those who got away. 2013 gave us an embarrassment of riches when it came to actor in a leading category. I know many believed Tom Hanks turn in Captain Phillips deserved to be there along side Joaquin Phoenix in Her. Anyone who saw All is Lost knows it may very well have been the performance of Robert Redford's career. For me however the two egregious misses for the lead performance by an actor were that of Oscar Isaac as the namesake for Inside Llewyn Davis and Michael B. Jordan in Fruitvale Station. Oscar Isaac masterfully crafted a character who was not at all likable and yet managed to create great empathy for the talent who is destined to remain a near miss in his career and in life. It's a beautiful nuanced performance that reminds me why less is more and why the Cohen Brothers are great. Michael B. Jordan had the yeoman task of depicting the life of Oscar Grant in the 24 hours that preceded his horrific and tragic murder on a subway platform in California just past the midnight celebration of New Years Eve. In a film that strikes you viscerally, it is no small feat that Jordan deftly navigates the complexity of a young black man who is neither villain nor martyr. He is simply a young man trying to pivot out of a series of bad choices so he can course correct his life for his daughter and the family he loves. There is a sequence in a supermarket that shows the full range of emotions that you would find in most young men, cocky, confidant, angry, short tempered and full of bravado. The sadness lies in the reality that as a young black man at a crossroads life is pulled out from under him based on nothing more than the bias and racism that sits just beneath the surface. Both are worth the time, in spite of the lack of Oscar love this year.

Now, onto the actual nominees:

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Christian Bale (American Hustle) Bruce Dern (Nebraska) Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street) Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

This race should be more interesting than it currently feels. First we can dispatch with the odd choice of Christian Bale who is not even in the conversation and Bruce Dern who while terrific is also the victim of the above overstuffed number of performances this year. For me, all roads lead to the Oscars jumping onto the McConassaince. Fact is McConaughey had an obscenely good year. His quiet and powerful performance this summer in Mud was effective and sincere. His cameo in The Wolf of Wall Street a surprising highlight in the high octane mayhem of excess that film was. But Dallas Buyers Club was different. It was the most daring performance of the year. Not because of the subject matter, but because McConaughey attacked all aspects of his character's contradictions and innate bias. The performance was defiant and it is why I believe he will ultimately win.  However, Leonardo DiCaprio's central focus in The Wolf of Wall Street was shockingly charismatic and invincible. The film has suffered blow back because most expected a redemptive retread of Wall Street and what they got was an unapologetic satire. I ate the entire 3+ hours like candy and a large reason is because of the steady mania that DiCaprio brings to the screen. It's his best performance since Revolutionary Road and he is an actor who is due. Chiwetel Ejiofor is thoroughly admired for his talent and this portrayal. As much as I adore him, I didn't love this performance. I thought it was uneven and suffered from a difficult script. However, if he does pull it out on Sunday it will be on the strength of the earnest conviction he brings to Solomon. There is a moment that hasn't made the clip reels that I actually think is what makes this performance heartbreaking. It is watching the conviction of hope and survival drain out of his character only to be replaced with resignation. It is a tight shot without the flare of a monologue and it is the strongest set of frames Ejiofor has in the entire film. 

Will Win/Should Win: Matthew McConaughy (although I will cry no rivers if Ejiofor or DiCaprio walks away with the statue). 

 

    

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Amy Adams (American Hustle) Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) Sandra Bullock (Gravity) Judi Dench (Philomena) Meryl Streep (August: Osage County

And welcome to the sure thing of the 86th Academy Awards. Cate Blanchett will catch no blow back for the sideshow that is her director. She will waltz up to the stage to collect the last of the many prizes she has earned for her turn as the modern day Blanche. As someone who had the good fortune to see Blanchett actually play that quintessential role in Streetcar Named Desire, her luminous insanity was not surprising here. She is the money bet for Sunday night.  Now Adams is a dark horse because she is due and has done consistently solid work over the last five years. She should have won for O'Russell's The Fighter, but I don't think it warrants the 'oops' award here. Bullock and Streep's nominations are a bad joke and I say that as a fan of Streep and someone without an ax to grind against Bullock. I sentimentally wish for Judi Dench to take this one home. It is my personal wish, founded in nothing more than the fact that she is pure genius. In Philomena she balances the tragedy of circumstance, the carriage of grief and the humor of someone who has lived with the former two with such ease you forget she's acting. It's what makes her great, but won't put her over the top here.

Will Win/Should Win: Cate Blanchett

OSCAR OSCAR WHO WILL WIN: Words, Words, Words... The Screenplay

Next on the docket is what I consider to be the circular vascular system of a movie, the screenplay. I have always found this category interesting because a win here doesn't necessarily guarantee a film will go on to win best picture. Often these categories offer the place where the academy can honor a film that doesn't rise to best picture but was admirable or compelling in some fashion. At times it almost serves as the consolation prize for best picture. 

Interesting trivia about screenplays:

• 30 of the 85 best picture winners didn't win a best screenplay award.

• Adaptations have won best picture by a 3 to 1 margin over it's 85 year history.

• Huge epic films don't tend to win screenwriting awards. The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King is the most recent, rare exception.

• No musical that has won best picture has ever won best screenplay.

Best Adapted Screenplay	Before Midnight Captain Phillips  Philomena 12 Years a Slave The Wolf of Wall Street

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

This category is intriguing to me because the film that I believe will win was my least favorite script of the . bunch. 12 Years a Slave will take this honor almost by default and based on its subject matter, strong acting and interesting directing choices at pivotal moments in the film. I found the script all too often overwrought and in desperate need of an edit. That said, the other options range from strong in (Philomena) to quaint (Before Midnight). Philomena is a dark horse here. When people see it, they love it. The script is taut, honest and I found it gripping. The Wolf of Wall Street is another script that is elevated by performance and Captain Phillips is a script that serves its movie well but not extraordinary on its face.

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: Philomena

Best Original Screenplay	American Hustle  Blue Jasmine  Dallas Buyers Club Her  Nebraska

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

This side of the screenplay race is wide open as far as I am concerned and difficult to predict. Let's eliminate the obvious ones first. Dallas Buyers Club, Blue Jasmine and Nebraska are admirable films to round out this category although I would have argued for Mud, Inside Llewyn Davis and The Way Way Back in their place. That leaves the battle of the "never won" guys. Strong cases have been made for American Hustle, and I don't think it is a bad bet. Particularly for those who believe O'Russell missing out last year for Silver Linings Playbook was egregious. I do think Spike Jonze's pre-Oscar wins, particularly at the WGAs makes Her a real contender in a way it wasn't two months ago. It is also the most original story of the nominees. Neither writer has won before so it is the academy award equivalent of a jump ball. However, I believe Joaquin Phoenix missing out in the best actor category hurts Her's chances. I think those who hadn't seen Her prior to nominations being announced were less inclined to watch once he wasn't nominated. My edge goes to American Hustle.

Will Win: American Hustle

Should Win: Her

What nominated writing moved you? What was missing that deserved to be here? Could the academy ignore common sense and go in a completely different direction? What say you?

Oscar Oscar Who Will Win (should win): Best Supporting Actor & Actress

Tis the season and we are officially on countdown to Sunday's broadcast of the 2014 Oscars. This year an argument could have been made that we only needed five films nominated and 10 nominees for best actor (but more on that Wednesday!).  I will start with the categories that make up the first hour of our broadcast, those in a supporting role.

The Nominees:

Best Actor in a Supporting Role	Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips) Bradley Cooper (American Hustle) Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave) Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street) Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

This category had an interesting awards season. Out of the gate Barkhad Abdi was the person to beat, but quickly faded in favor of the type of performance Academy voters love - "the complete departure". Many an actor have won Oscars for physically transforming, playing against type and touching into a place of tragedy. Following that theory and Jared Leto's award season pick ups make this his award to lose. Add to it that he is a first time nominee and this is a category where the academy loves to honor first timers it is hard to think there will be an upset in this category. He's not the surest thing on Oscar night, that honor belongs to the leading actress category. I have finally seen all the performances in this category and Leto's is certainly affecting, but it wouldn't be my pick and nor is it the standout in Dallas Buyers Club. However, I am a realist and I wouldn't bet against Leto on Sunday. 

Will Win: Jared Leto

Should Win: Michael Fassbender

In a film I didn't like, Fassbender has the role that is riddled with traps for an actor. It can easily be overplayed and is a character highly susceptible to coming across as one-note. Fassbender manages to create a broken character with moments of vulnerability embedded in a lifetime of hatred. His strongest moment comes in a sequence with lead Chiwetel Ejiofer. It's a dance of deception, fear and knowing hostility. Fassbender leans into the terror and creates a frightening moment that causes the viewer to hold their breath, even with full knowledge of Solomon's fate. It's the performance that isn't talked about because it requires something ugly and gruesome. But of the nominees, it's my favorite. 

Best Actress in a Supporting Role	Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine) Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave) Julia Roberts (August: Osage County) June Squibb (Nebraska

This is by all accounts a two woman race between Nyong'o and Lawrence. I personally loathed Sally Hawkins performance in Blue Jasmine, but it doesn't even rise to the occasion of worthiness. Roberts nomination is odd, but the academy loves her so I am going to accept that is why she is here. Although if they were going to look for a supporting nomination for August: Osage County they could have had the good sense to nominate the worthy, luminous Margo Martindale who makes everything better by just showing up. That leaves June Squibb in Nebraska. For my money, she is the dark horse and the upset the Oscars loves to toss out in the first hour of broadcast (see: Marisa Tomei). I am not convinced Squibb will pull it out in the end, but I think it is within the realm of possibility. The combination of a great performance, screeners that make watching Nebraska convenient for the voters and a potential split vote between Lawrence and Nyong'o could give us the first upset of the night. I don't think it will happen but it could. That said, Lawrence is the new darling of the academy, but she won last year, for a better lead role, in a better film by David O'Russell. I don't think lightening hits that bottle twice. That leaves Lupita, who gave a gut wrenching performance in a role that people want to honor, especially given the stacked deck that the best actor category is this year. Add to that the great story line of Nyong'o being a breakout star this season on screen and on the red carpet I think the night will be hers. 

Will Win/Should Win - Lupita Nyong'o

In the absence of other nominees, I think Lupita's performance is far and away the standout. Just don't be surprised if at 8:20PM on Sunday you are Google-ing June Squibb's name.

Who are your picks? Who was missing? And a moment for a personal shoutout to my completely biased favorite, supporting performance this season  - one Jeanine Serralles in the underrated, wonderful Cohen Brother's Inside Llewyn Davis.