OSCAR OSCAR WHO WILL WIN: Your Ballot Made Simple

Winning your betting pool for Oscar night isn't about best picks or getting all the categories right. It is about getting the categories everyone got wrong right. Much like the first rounds of March Madness, winning your Oscar pool is all about picking the upset. Everyone is going to have Cate Blanchett and Matthew McConaughy. The trick is to find the potential to pick up wins where no one else will. So why not make a calculated guess. If your like me, it's the difference between winner takes all and splitting your the money pot at the end of the night.

In that spirit I offer you a quick cheat sheet for checking off your ballots, with best bets, possible wins and out of the box spoilers.

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, 12 Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street

What will win: 12 Years a Slave

What ought to win: 12 Years a Slave

Pick that could make or break your betting pool: American Hustle

My Pick:  12 Years a Slave - although I am totally hoping for a tie! 

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity), Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave), Alexander Payne (Nebraska), David O. Russell (American Hustle), Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Who will win: Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)

Who ought to win: Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)

Pick that could make or break your betting pool: Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)

My Pick:  Alfonso Cuaron

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Christian Bale (American Hustle), Bruce Dern (Nebraska), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street), Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave), Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Who will win: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Who ought to win: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Pick that could make or break your betting pool: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)

My Pick:  Leonardo DiCaprio

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Amy Adams (American Hustle), Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Sandra Bullock (Gravity), Judi Dench (Philomena), Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

Who will win: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

Who ought to win: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

Pick that could make or break your betting pool: Amy Adams (American Hustle)

My Pick:  Cate Blanchett

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips), Bradley Cooper (American Hustle), Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave), Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street), Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Who will win: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Who ought to win:  Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)

Pick that could make or break your betting pool: Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)

My Pick:  Jared Leto

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle), Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County), June Squibb (Nebraska)

Who will win: Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)

Who ought to win: Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)

Pick that could make or break your betting pool: Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)

My Pick:  Lupita Nyong'o

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees: Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine), Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack (Dallas Buyers Club), Spike Jonze (Her), Bob Nelson (Nebraska), Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell (American Hustle)

Who will win: Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell (American Hustle)

Who ought to win: Spike Jonze (Her)

Pick that could make or break your betting pool: Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack (Dallas Buyers Club)

My Pick:  American Hustle

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees: Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope (Philomena); Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, and Ethan Hawke (Before Midnight); Billy Ray (Captain Phillips), John Ridley (12 Years a Slave), Terence Winter (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Who will win: John Ridley (12 Years a Slave)

Who ought to win: Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope (Philomena)

Pick that could make or break your betting pool: Billy Ray (Captain Phillips)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Nominees: Roger Deakins (Prisoners), Bruno Delbonnel (Inside Llewyn Davis), Philippe Le Sourd (The Grandmaster), Emmanuel Lubezki (Gravity), Phedon Papamichael (Nebraska)

Who will win: Emmanuel Lubezki (Gravity)

Who ought to win: Emmanuel Lubezki (Gravity)

Pick that could make or break your betting pool: Bruno Delbonnel (Inside Llewyn Davis)

My Pick:  Emmanuel Lubezki Gravity

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Nominees: The Croods, Despicable Me 2, Ernest & Celestine, Frozen, The Wind Rises

What will win: Frozen

What ought to win: The Wind Rises

Pick that could make or break your betting pool: The Wind Rises

My Pick: The Wind Rises

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Nominees: “Happy” from “Despicable Me 2” Music and Lyric by Pharrell Williams;  “Let It Go” from “Frozen” Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez; “The Moon Song” from “Her” Music by Karen O; Lyric by Karen O and Spike Jonze; “Ordinary Love” from “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom” Music by Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen; Lyric by Paul Hewson (aka U2)

What will win:  “Let It Go” from “Frozen”

What ought to win: “Let It Go” from “Frozen”

Pick that could make or break your betting pool: “Ordinary Love” from “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom”

My Pick:  "Let it Go" from "Frozen"

And once more because it's fun...

OSCAR OSCAR WHO WILL WIN: Best Picture

We are 24 hours out from the red carpet frenzy precursor that is the Academy Awards. With that I have but one category left. Best Picture. Before that, I give you what will likely be my favorite thing to come out of the Oscar broadcast. Ellen Degeneres host promo. It's light, fun and the fastest smile inducing minute I saw all week.

I have never been a fan of the 10 best picture nominees, because in truth, there are never that many active competitors in this category, 2013 is no different. This is a 3 way competition between American Hustle, Gravity and 12 Years a Slave. The interesting part of this trio is that they are so uniquely different. I didn't love any of these films but understand what has brought them to the forefront of Oscar night. They each represent everything we love about movies. A film that is a giant playground for actors we've come to love (American Hustle). A movie unlike anything we've ever seen on screen (Gravity). A film with subject, scale and depth that makes it epic on its face (12 Years a Slave). It is why I honestly think any could take home the big prize tomorrow night. However in a year that lacks any true momentum, the best bet would be 12 Years a Slave.

Best Picture	American Hustle Captain Phillips Dallas Buyers Club Gravity Her Nebraska Philomena 12 Years a Slave The Wolf of Wall Street

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave

Should Win: I think (and would love to see a tie) Gravity/12 Years a Slave

OSCAR OSCAR WHO WILL WIN: The Hodgepodge - Best Director and other random nomination thoughts.

There are plenty of awards and names that will be seen on Sunday night's broadcast including the second to last award of the evening. Best Director. I am a straight shooter when it comes to this category and live by the creed 'as goes the Director's Guild Awards go I'.  Which means this is Cuaron's to lose.

Best Directing	American Hustle (David O. Russell) Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón) Nebraska (Alexander Payne) 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen) The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)

Fact is only 7 times in 65 opportunities has the person who won the DGA not gone on to win the Oscar. Most notably last year when Ben Affleck won for Argo, but wasn't even nominated for an Oscar. Gravity is a movie I didn't like, but it was a visual spectacle and it was like experiencing art in a way that was visually gratifying. It just wasn't a very good film. So I am torn about supporting his win. The only person who has a chance at unseating him is Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave. And frankly the only way that happens is if it gets swept up in the unlikely event that the movie runs the table. Something we will know early if Fassbender or their adapted screenplay win.

Will Win/Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

And then there's the best of the rest: animated film, documentary, score and song:

Best Animated Feature	The Croods (Chris Sanders, Kirk DeMicco, Kristine Belson) Despicable Me 2 (Chris Renaud, Pierre Coffin, Chris Meledandri) Ernest & Celestine (Benjamin Renner, Didier Brunner) Frozen (Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho) The Wind Rises (Hayao Miyazaki, Toshio Suzuki)

Here's some interesting trivia about best animated feature, since its inception in 2002 Disney Animation has never won. (Brave is a Pixar film). Yet it is widely believed that the strength of Beauty and the Beast and Lion King spurred the momentum to include the category. The former being the first animated feature ever to be nominated for best picture. Frozen is lightening in a bottle the likes of which Disney hasn't seen since The Lion King and has a real chance to win on Sunday night. It's not the best film in the lot, that honor goes to Hayao Miyazaki's The Wind Rises and I think he should win. But the fervor around Frozen makes it the best bet.

Will Win: Frozen
Should Win: The Wind Rises

Best Documentary Feature	The Act of Killing (Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge Sørensen) Cutie and the Boxer (Zachary Heinzerling, Lydia Dean Pilcher) Dirty Wars (Richard Rowley, Jeremy Scahill) The Square (Jehane Noujaim, Karim Amer) 20 Feet from Stardom (Nominees to be determined

I bring this category to the forefront because it holds my favorite nomination for Sunday night and the most egregious omission Blackfish. The CNN documentary traces the unsavory and criminally cruel practices that built the brand we know as Sea World. Built around the deaths caused by the killer whale Tillikum the film painfully traces the indifference in practice and abject lies surrounding the awful breading practices at Sea World. I don't know how it was passed over and I am sorry it was, it is a film that enrages, but should not be missed.  20 Feet of Stardom is my favorite nomination and I hope it goes on to win.

Will Win: The Act of Killing
Should Win: 20 Feet from Stardom

Best Original Score	The Book Thief (John Williams) Gravity (Steven Price) Her (William Butler, Owen Pallett) Philomena (Alexandre Desplat) Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)

Here is where the yin/yang of film making really does swing into full effect. Yes John WIlliams is the perennial nominee, but this award will go to Steven Price for Gravity.

Will Win/Should Win: Gravity (Steven Price)

Best Original Song	Happy (Despicable Me 2) Let It Go (Frozen) The Moon Song (Her) Ordinary Love (Mandela: Long Walk to Freededom

So here's where the obvious bet is on the song that every parent has been listening to at nausea for the last six months. That said, I was right about Eminem, I find it hard to bet against U2.

Will/Should Win: Let it Go (Frozen)
Could Win: Ordinary Love (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)