Tis the season and we are officially on countdown to Sunday's broadcast of the 2014 Oscars. This year an argument could have been made that we only needed five films nominated and 10 nominees for best actor (but more on that Wednesday!). I will start with the categories that make up the first hour of our broadcast, those in a supporting role.
The Nominees:
Will Win: Jared Leto
Should Win: Michael Fassbender
In a film I didn't like, Fassbender has the role that is riddled with traps for an actor. It can easily be overplayed and is a character highly susceptible to coming across as one-note. Fassbender manages to create a broken character with moments of vulnerability embedded in a lifetime of hatred. His strongest moment comes in a sequence with lead Chiwetel Ejiofer. It's a dance of deception, fear and knowing hostility. Fassbender leans into the terror and creates a frightening moment that causes the viewer to hold their breath, even with full knowledge of Solomon's fate. It's the performance that isn't talked about because it requires something ugly and gruesome. But of the nominees, it's my favorite.
This is by all accounts a two woman race between Nyong'o and Lawrence. I personally loathed Sally Hawkins performance in Blue Jasmine, but it doesn't even rise to the occasion of worthiness. Roberts nomination is odd, but the academy loves her so I am going to accept that is why she is here. Although if they were going to look for a supporting nomination for August: Osage County they could have had the good sense to nominate the worthy, luminous Margo Martindale who makes everything better by just showing up. That leaves June Squibb in Nebraska. For my money, she is the dark horse and the upset the Oscars loves to toss out in the first hour of broadcast (see: Marisa Tomei). I am not convinced Squibb will pull it out in the end, but I think it is within the realm of possibility. The combination of a great performance, screeners that make watching Nebraska convenient for the voters and a potential split vote between Lawrence and Nyong'o could give us the first upset of the night. I don't think it will happen but it could. That said, Lawrence is the new darling of the academy, but she won last year, for a better lead role, in a better film by David O'Russell. I don't think lightening hits that bottle twice. That leaves Lupita, who gave a gut wrenching performance in a role that people want to honor, especially given the stacked deck that the best actor category is this year. Add to that the great story line of Nyong'o being a breakout star this season on screen and on the red carpet I think the night will be hers.
Will Win/Should Win - Lupita Nyong'o
In the absence of other nominees, I think Lupita's performance is far and away the standout. Just don't be surprised if at 8:20PM on Sunday you are Google-ing June Squibb's name.
Who are your picks? Who was missing? And a moment for a personal shoutout to my completely biased favorite, supporting performance this season - one Jeanine Serralles in the underrated, wonderful Cohen Brother's Inside Llewyn Davis.
Let the Oscar posts begin! I'm ashamed to say, these are two categories where I haven't seen most of the nominees. But I'm right there with you. I don't share your hatred of Sally Hawkins-- at least she was IN Blue Jasmine, instead of Cate Blanchett who whirled a dervish in her own private corner of some other film altogether. Nyong'o and Leto have my money.
ReplyDeleteOh Wes, this might be my favorite sentence all week - "Cate Blanchett who whirled a dervish in her own private corner of some other film altogether". I don't know that being in Blue Jasmine is better frankly. But then again I carry heavy Woody Allen bias - and that's just bias about his films, not the fact that he is a vile dirty old man.
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