NOTE: A word about Breaking Bad and Bryan Cranston in particular. I appreciate the momentum the show has picked up recently and concede this final season has been mind-blowing. However, the nominations on Sunday are for Season 4 which was less than its best. My picks reflect my thoughts about season 4, not it's currently running final season.
DRAMA
Outstanding Drama Series
Should Win: Game
of Thrones
Will Win: House
of Cards
This one is a tough call.
Breaking Bad or Homeland could easily win based on momentum. I think of the
nominated shows, Game of Thrones had the best season, but House of Cards feels
like a show people want to reward.
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series
Should Win: Damian
Lewis as Nicholas Brody, Homeland
Will Win: Kevin
Spacey as Francis Underwood, House of Cards
Spacey is an actor people love
to vote for, in a series that broke ground in TV viewing with Netflix. In spite
of a weak 2nd season the acting on Homeland remains among the best
that television has to offer. So I would like back to back wins for Lewis.
Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama Series
Should Win:
Robin Wright as Claire Underwood, House of Cards
Will Win: Claire
Danes as Carrie Mathison, Homeland
Claire Danes is actually my
least favorite thing in Homeland, but she’s nearly a lock to win. For me Robin
Wright WAS the reason to watch House of Cards.
***** A moment of silence for the robbed Tatiana
Maslany, who actually gave the best performance, hands down. **********
Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama Series
Should Win: Anna Gunn as Skyler White Breaking Bad
Will Win: Maggie
Smith as Violet, Dowager Countess Downton Abbey
Anna Gunn deserves it, but I
don’t bet against Maggie Smith and she was at her very best last season. She
broke my heart simply by leaning into a wall.
Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama Series
Should Win: Mandy
Patinkin as Saul, Homeland
Will Win: Aaron
Paul as Jesse Pinkman Breaking Bad
I hope I am wrong and that
Patinkin deservedly wins here on Sunday night. He is the backbone of Homeland
and his performance a master class.
COMEDY
Outstanding Comedy Series
Should Win: Louie
Will Win: Modern
Family
Louie is better than Modern
Family, but Modern Family is poised to make history in consecutive wins and join
a prestigious group of comedy with multiple wins in this category. It will do
both.
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Comedy Series
Should/Will Win: Louis C.K. as Louie, Louie
This is the way the Emmys
will reward this terrific show. It won’t win for best comedy and this is the
next best thing. Jim Parsons has an outside shot at spoiling.
Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy Series
Should Win: Amy
Poehler as Leslie Knope Parks and Recreation
Will Win: Julia
Louis-Dreyfus as Selina Meyer Veep
Poehler is due, but the Emmy’s
love Louis-Dreyfus and she is great in Veep so it’s hard to deny her.
Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series
Should Win: Merritt Wever as Zoey Barkow Nurse Jackie
Will Win: Julie Bowen as Claire Dunphy Modern Family
Emmy’s
history is repetitive especially in the comedy series categories so logic
dictates Bowen gets a second statue.
Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy Series
Should Win: Ed O'Neill as Jay Pritchett, Modern Family
Will Win: Ty Burell as Phil Dunphy Modern Family
O'Neill has long deserved Emmy love, he's just unlikely to get it here. Look for Tony Hale to spoil for Veep if the Modern Family vote splinters off voters.
REALITY
Outstanding Reality-Competition Program
Should Win: So
You Think You Can Dance
Will Win: The
Amazing Race
Since they started the
category the Amazing Race has won all but one time (losing to Top Chef). Good
money says stay with the travelogue show.
Outstanding Host For A Reality Or Reality-Competition
Program
Should Win: Cat
Deeley, So You Think You Can Dance
Will Win: Tom
Bergeron, Dancing with the Stars
Cat Deeley is completed
overshadowed by bigger names in shows that get more press. Bergeron however
makes a show long past its expiration date palatable.
MINISERIES/MOVIE
Outstanding Miniseries Or Movie
Should Win: Top
of the Lake
Will Win: Behind
the Candelabra
This too is a lock. Top of
the Lake was terrific but Behind the Candelabra was an event.
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Miniseries Or A Movie
Will/Should Win: Michael Douglas as Liberace Behind the Candelabra
This is the lock of the night. Period.
Outstanding Lead Actress In A Miniseries Or A Movie
Will/Should Win: Elisabeth Moss as Robin, Top of the Lake
The Emmy’s finally has a mechanism for honoring Elisabeth Moss outside of Mad
Men and logic says they’ll take it. It helps that she deserves it for this role
specifically.
Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Miniseries Or A
Movie
Should Win: Alfre Woodard as Ouiser Steel Magnolias
Will Win: Sarah Paulson as Lana Winters American Horror Story
Woodard was the best thing in a good remake of
Magnolias, but Paulson is loved and was robbed last year for Game Change.
Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Miniseries Or A
Movie
Should/Will Win: Peter Mullan as Matt Top of the Lake
Mullan was terrific and is likely given the makeup of the category, however
James Cromwell could spoil.
One final note: I had an extensive catharsis around the
Emmy's when the nominations came out. You can read it here. I have one final gripe to make before the fun begins.
Earlier
this week it the Emmy's announced they were going to single out
James
Gandolfini, Jonathan Winters, Jean Stapleton, Gary David
Goldberg and
Corey Monteith outside the traditional In Memoriam scroll that happens
annually. My
personal
opinion, the memoriam is a time to honor all in the industry who passed. But, if the academy is going to single out a handful of people it should be for a
significant and/or impacting body of work. Monteith doesn't meet that
threshold. Furthermore, the cynic in me thinks it's a ploy to pull in
younger demographics which is gross.
Now bring on Neil Patrick Harris...
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