EMMY PICKS: A laymans guide for those of you who have betting pools to win

This post has one explicit purpose. To set up the viewing pleasure that comes from betting pools. So lets get into it - the great divide of who will and who should win.

NOTE:  A word about Breaking Bad and Bryan Cranston in particular. I appreciate the momentum the show has picked up recently and concede this final season has been mind-blowing. However, the nominations on Sunday are for Season 4 which was less than its best. My picks reflect my thoughts about season 4, not it's currently running final season.

DRAMA

Outstanding Drama Series

Should Win: Game of Thrones

Will Win: House of Cards

This one is a tough call. Breaking Bad or Homeland could easily win based on momentum. I think of the nominated shows, Game of Thrones had the best season, but House of Cards feels like a show people want to reward.

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series

Should Win: Damian Lewis as Nicholas Brody, Homeland

Will Win: Kevin Spacey as Francis Underwood, House of Cards

Spacey is an actor people love to vote for, in a series that broke ground in TV viewing with Netflix. In spite of a weak 2^nd season the acting on Homeland remains among the best that television has to offer. So I would like back to back wins for Lewis.

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama Series

Should Win: Robin Wright as Claire Underwood, House of Cards

Will Win: Claire Danes as Carrie Mathison, Homeland

Claire Danes is actually my least favorite thing in Homeland, but she’s nearly a lock to win. For me Robin Wright WAS the reason to watch House of Cards.

***** A moment of silence for the robbed Tatiana Maslany, who actually gave the best performance, hands down. **********

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama Series

Should Win: Anna Gunn as Skyler White Breaking Bad

Will Win: Maggie Smith as Violet, Dowager Countess Downton Abbey

Anna Gunn deserves it, but I don’t bet against Maggie Smith and she was at her very best last season. She broke my heart simply by leaning into a wall.

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama Series

Should Win: Mandy Patinkin as Saul, Homeland

Will Win: Aaron Paul as Jesse Pinkman Breaking Bad

I hope I am wrong and that Patinkin deservedly wins here on Sunday night. He is the backbone of Homeland and his performance a master class.

COMEDY

Outstanding Comedy Series

Should Win: Louie

Will Win: Modern Family

Louie is better than Modern Family, but Modern Family is poised to make history in consecutive wins and join a prestigious group of comedy with multiple wins in this category. It will do both.

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Comedy Series

Should/Will Win: Louis C.K. as Louie, Louie

This is the way the Emmys will reward this terrific show. It won’t win for best comedy and this is the next best thing. Jim Parsons has an outside shot at spoiling.

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy Series

Should Win: Amy Poehler as Leslie Knope Parks and Recreation

Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Selina Meyer Veep

Poehler is due, but the Emmy’s love Louis-Dreyfus and she is great in Veep so it’s hard to deny her.

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series

Should Win: Merritt Wever as Zoey Barkow Nurse Jackie

Will Win: Julie Bowen as Claire Dunphy Modern Family

Emmy’s history is repetitive especially in the comedy series categories so logic dictates Bowen gets a second statue.

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy Series

Should Win: Ed O'Neill as Jay Pritchett, Modern Family

Will Win: Ty Burell as Phil Dunphy Modern Family

O'Neill has long deserved Emmy love, he's just unlikely to get it here. Look for Tony Hale to spoil for Veep if the Modern Family vote splinters off voters.

REALITY

Outstanding Reality-Competition Program

Should Win: So You Think You Can Dance

Will Win: The Amazing Race

Since they started the category the Amazing Race has won all but one time (losing to Top Chef). Good money says stay with the travelogue show.

Outstanding Host For A Reality Or Reality-Competition Program

Should Win: Cat Deeley, So You Think You Can Dance

Will Win: Tom Bergeron, Dancing with the Stars

Cat Deeley is completed overshadowed by bigger names in shows that get more press. Bergeron however makes a show long past its expiration date palatable.

MINISERIES/MOVIE

Outstanding Miniseries Or Movie

Should Win: Top of the Lake

Will Win: Behind the Candelabra

This too is a lock. Top of the Lake was terrific but Behind the Candelabra was an event.

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Miniseries Or A Movie

Will/Should Win: Michael Douglas as Liberace Behind the Candelabra

This is the lock of the night. Period.

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Miniseries Or A Movie

Will/Should Win: Elisabeth Moss as Robin, Top of the Lake

The Emmy’s finally has a mechanism for honoring Elisabeth Moss outside of Mad Men and logic says they’ll take it. It helps that she deserves it for this role specifically.

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Miniseries Or A Movie

Should Win: Alfre Woodard as Ouiser Steel Magnolias

Will Win: Sarah Paulson as Lana Winters American Horror Story

Woodard was the best thing in a good remake of Magnolias, but Paulson is loved and was robbed last year for Game Change.

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Miniseries Or A Movie

Should/Will Win: Peter Mullan as Matt Top of the Lake

Mullan was terrific and is likely given the makeup of the category, however James Cromwell could spoil.

One final note: I had an extensive catharsis around the Emmy's when the nominations came out. You can read it here. I have one final gripe to make before the fun begins. Earlier this week it the Emmy's announced they were going to single out James Gandolfini, Jonathan Winters, Jean Stapleton, Gary David Goldberg and Corey Monteith outside the traditional In Memoriam scroll that happens annually. My personal opinion, the memoriam is a time to honor all in the industry who passed. But, if the academy is going to single out a handful of people it should be for a significant and/or impacting body of work. Monteith doesn't meet that threshold. Furthermore, the cynic in me thinks it's a ploy to pull in younger demographics which is gross. 

Now bring on Neil Patrick Harris... 

FALL TV Part 2: Where we left off and who I left off

Returning shows are always my most anticipated TV moments in the 3^rd week of September. Perhaps it is because these are the shows I invested in but more often than not they’ve left me with a pretty great cliffhanger from May. However, mainstays on my DVR have to earn their spot back just as much as a new show. They are particularly prone to the Rule #3. If a show piles up after the premiere it is to fall of the DVR priority before Halloween. Such was the fate of several sophomore shows last year. Here are the staples in my TV diet and I believe it covers some of the best TV has to offer.

The Good Wife (CBS Sundays 9PM) Despite an ill-conceived plot point around Kalinda last season The Good Wife continues to be one of the best shows on broadcast television. Their use of guest stars is unmatched and the regular cast have really leaned into the shades of grey around their characters adding fun nuance week over week. The decision to form a new practice with Alicia and Cary at the helm opens up an entirely new set of avenues for storytelling that I am eager to see this season. 

Once Upon a Time (ABC Sundays 8PM) This fantasy series lost its way with a very uneven and oft boring sophomore effort. Unlike some of its TV peers OUAT creators smartly used the final two episodes to set a course for a very intriguing third season. Taking past nemesis characters and sending them off to Neverland united with a singular purpose - to save Henry was a great reboot for the show. It wisely connects back to the core cast and like the Good Wife pivots viewers into a new arena of storytelling. For that move alone Once Upon a Time went from a fence show to earning back a slot on my DVR. 

Castle (ABC Mondays 10PM) This is my little show that could. A show I love for many reasons (as noted here) and one that navigated the Moonlighting curse with a deft hand. After five seasons Andrew Marlowe has never lost sight of the fact that the show is at its strongest when it puts its full ensemble to work. Expanding that group with guest arcs with Linda Edelstein leading the pack. It offers Nathan Fillion new foils to play off of leaves me hopeful for a fresh take on characters I adore. Yes the cliffhanger offered two pivotal plot points, but it’s a testament to the show is that I don't particularly care about what Beckett's answers are because I think the show is strong enough to navigate any decisions the writers have made. 

Grey’s Anatomy (ABC Thursdays 9PM) As we enter this series 10^th season it is clear I am in until the finish with Shondra Rhimes’ pioneer series. This show had a great resurgence two years ago by smartly maturing their core characters and layering in the expanded cast in an equally balanced way. It's not the show it was in season 2 but more importantly it isn't the show it was in season 4. Shondra Rhimes dedication to this cast is evident and I am most curious to see how they navigate Sandra Oh’s departure.

Homeland (SHO Sundays 9PM) Just because it's on cable doesn't mean it is immune to the sophomore slump. In my opinion Homeland suffered similar growing pains that include circular storytelling, misguided pacing and b plots that added little to what made Homeland riveting in season 1. Still the trinity of Mandy Patinkin, Claire Danes and Damian Lewis continued to deliver stellar work. In spite of the plot gaps the show offered moments that give me hope for a strong 3rd season including a finale that left Saul in charge of the CIA, Nicholas Brody in the wind, Carrie Mathison reeling and the viewer with absolutely no indication of where this series is headed. 

ON THE FENCE

These shows encompass series I am either mildly curious about, but that I don’t think will necessarily find an audience or are the shows I have watched in the past but fell so far into disarray that I lack confidence in their ability to rebound.

Revenge (ABC Sundays 9PM) Revenge fell off a cliff last year. It became unwatchable and all but obliterated the plot lines and relationships we most cared about as viewers. There is a new showrunner in place and promises of a return to what made the show fun to watch in the first place. I remain unconvinced that Revenge can dig itself out of the hole. More importantly my original concern with this show, that the premise is vulnerable to becoming redundant in it's need to entertain over a 22 episode season, quickly came to fruition last year. It will likely get a 3 episode look but I remain skeptical.

Hostages (CBS Mondays 10PM) Tony Collette and Dylan McDermott could make a great pairing on screen. My chief concern about this series is that it falls in the trap of so many before it and premise that has nowhere to go once it’s resolved. Like the Following last year, I just don’t know how you maintain suspense over 15 episodes without it becoming boring or pandering because of the need to fill for time. It only has a 15 episode slate scheduled, so it could sidestep that concern.

The Blacklist (NBC Mondays 10PM) I am not a fan of post Pretty in Pink James Spader, but this series has some of the best buzz going into the Fall. I am going to see if it takes and may still pick it up if it gains momentum. It falls on a packed TV night so something else would have to fall away for me to add it to my rotation.

GLEE (FOX Wednesdays, 9PM) It’s been two years since I watched Glee with any kind of regularity. But like many I loved the show when it first hit and Corey Monteith was a big part of that love. So with a heavy heart I will return to Glee for the tribute. I just am highly unlikely to remain after it.

Scandal (ABC Thursdays, 9PM) Damn you Lisa Kudrow and your dramatic multiple episode arch! I am in the absolute minority when it comes to this show. I think it is absurd and pious while taking itself WAY too seriously given its plot lines. However, I adore Kudrow and relish the idea of seeing her do something dramatic. So I am back for the moment, but not in DVR committed way.

FALL TV SEASON has arrived aka Christmas morning for TV Junkies

It's Fall and for a TV junkie like me it's the most wonderful time of year. When a slate of new programming hits the airwaves and I once again hold out hope that I will find a new sitcom to make me laugh the way Frasier does 20 years after it premiered and a new drama that instantly makes me invest in its characters and mystery like Orphan Black did earlier this Spring. 

That’s right it is time to clear out the DVRs, set up the recording schedule and manage our various queues on Netflix, Amazon and Hulu Plus. Unlike critics I am not privy to advance screenings but based on my holy three - previews, plots and performers I come up with a rotation of shows I hope will entertain me well into the spring. If you are looking for insight to the best of what's new in TV, I would recommend taking a gander at Robert Bianco's picks for Fall over on USA Today. If you are looking for a comprehensive guide to what's available for the 2013 Fall season, I offer you TVaholic's ultimate guide. If it's not there, it doesn't exist.

With the expanding options on cable and streaming it is impossible to watch everything that is of interest. Even with all the technology at my disposal I still only have but so many hours in my day to dedicate to television. This is why I have a strategic approach to my TV watching. It’s ritualistic if not scientific.

My 3 Rules to Fall TV viewing 

1) Prioritize: There are three categories for TV show; returning, new and on the fence. This represents my order of preference; some would place new shows above returning favorites. For me shows that have entertained me in the past and left me waiting on their May cliffhangers (ahem, Castle) get my priority attention and usually are watched the night they air. All new shows receive DVR preference and the shows that I am mildly curious about get taped if they aren’t in direct competition with something else. On the fence is often benched to ON Demand or streaming.

2) 3 Episode Rule: All new shows get a minimum of three episodes to prove their worth. If they fail to interest me at that point I abandon them and move on. It’s hard core, but trust me it’s necessary. Otherwise you can spend a season waiting for a show to improve simply because you like the actors. (Private Practice, I am looking at you!) Fact is, there are so many shows and so little time. If for some reason a show starts slow but picks up momentum after you abandon it, you can always revisit it over the winter break 90% of broadcast shows take thanks to On Demand and streaming.

3) Moving Box Mentality: I like to apply a great moving theory to my DVR. When you move if 6 months later you come across a box you never unpacked and you don’t know what’s in it, throw it away unopened. Therefore if more than three episodes of a given show pile up on my DVR without an attempt to watch (assuming no extenuating circumstances) I delete the show and scheduled recording without viewing it. Brutal yes, but generally speaking it tells me that the idea of the show isn’t compelling enough for me to make time to watch it so I pass and move on. 

Armed with my methodology I am able to enjoy all that the new season has to offer and still get to sleep at a decent hour. With the large numbers of new shows my secret hope is to find a sitcom I can really enjoy rather than merely occasionally laugh at each week. Here are my priority picks for what’s new in the TV landscape.

MONDAYS

Almost Human (FOX 8PM –premieres 11/4) $6million dollar man meets I Robot seems like a very likely absurd premise but all JJ Abrams shows get an automatic 3 episode viewing from me. I don’t think it’s going to be the next LOST but I am guardedly optimistic it won’t be the next Revolution either. 

Sleepy Hollow (FOX 9PM –premiered 9/16) Offers a Sci-fi/Fantasy series where Ichabod Crane rises from the dead into modern day upstate New York. It is a premise that could get old very quickly, especially given some of the wildly silly moments in the pilot. Case in point, the headless horseman had a terminator-like action sequence involving machine guns that was absurd. It did however establish an interesting mythology based in the Book of Revelations and the two leads shared a solid chemistry. My hope is it will settle into story that leaves it closer to Charmed and Buffy when it is all said and done. 

Mom (CBS 9:30PM –premieres 9/23) Allison Janney can get me to watch anything she’s in because she makes everything she is in better. Combine that with Anna Faris as her daughter and I am more than intrigued. Given Chuck Lorre’s track record it’s a safe bet that this one will last. But as much as I loved Cybil I have no love loss for Two and a Half Men or Mike and Molly. I am hopeful that there is finally going to be a sitcom that makes my DVR cut for weekly recording but fear 22 minutes of crass bathroom humor may be on the horizon. 

TUESDAY

Agents of S.H.E.I.L.D (ABC 8PM –premieres 9/24) – Joss Whedon, Avengers and the resurrection of Agent Coulson. That’s really all I require and because it’s a Whedon show, it will get six episodes before I make a DVR determination.

Brooklyn Nine Nine (FOX 8:30PM –premiered 9/17) I abandoned Saturday Night Live 15 years ago, so Andy Sandberg isn’t the draw for me. That distinction belongs to Andre Braugher. As with Last Resort in 2012, I am in for this show on the strength of my enjoyment of his acting. Based on Tuesday’s first outing I am going to need a lot more laughs to remain. It was uneven and did little to establish anything but its lead. Two and counting.

Trophy Wife (ABC 9:30PM –premieres 9/24) I adore Bradley Whitfield and miss seeing him on TV so I am want this one to take hold. The trailers for this show leave me worried that I am going to get Modern Family framework through the prism of ex-wives instead of extended family. I hope I am wrong.

THURSDAY

Once Upon a Time in Wonderland (ABC 8PM –premieres 9/26) If I had a most likely to drop off my DVR first, this would be it. But it looks visually spectacular and the producers are promising more contained storytelling rather than the large overarching plots/mysteries its older sibling Once Upon a Time has. If that holds true, then this one may stick.

The Millers (CBS 9PM –premieres 9/26) I am not going to lie; Margo Martindale is the only reason this show is getting a look. I am not a fan of Will Arnett and while I don’t think he’s the reason Up All Night failed, he certainly was a big part of the problem. That said a family comedy with Martindale as matriarch would make my weekly TV viewing complete. So if there is a show I am rooting for to love, this would be it.

Why I am most excited about returning shows and what's on the fence in my TV Queue will be up next. In the meantime, what's new for your 2013 Fall TV watching? Here's a TV grid to make planning your Fall viewing easier.